Could Luton Town AVOID THE DROP?

Along with Burnley and Sheffield United, who clinched the direct promotion spots to the Premier League, came Luton Town. After winning the promotion playoff, the tiny London team that played in the fifth tier of English football just a decade ago, were back in the first division for the first time since 1990.

When they were promoted the image of the entrance to their stadium went viral - just look at this:

What’s special about Luton Town is the miniscule budget they’re working with. In 2022, their revenue was only £17.7 million. TV-money and a last place finish in the Premier League this season would be worth more than ten times that. 

They have the smallest wage budget in the league and by far the smallest transfer spend. 

Throughout their history, Luton Town have only spent a combined £32 million, while Chelsea have managed to spend a whopping £961 million in the past year and a half alone. Another perspective - Luton Town's total spend is lower than the sixth most expensive player Chelsea bought this year.

Likely to Get Relegated at the Start of the Season

Before the season started, Luton Town was the second most likely team to get relegated according to the odds, just behind fellow recently promoted team Sheffield United and they still are today. But there is an argument to be made that they’re likely to avoid the drop.

There was no doubt before the season started that the aim would be to avoid the drop. And so far, they’re doing just that, albeit on goal difference.

Statistically Underperforming

There is an argument to be had though that they deserve more. If we look at the xG table where expected goals replace actual goals, both scored and conceded, then statistically speaking Luton should be in 14th, on the same points as Crystal Palace.

As many of the bottom half teams, Luton Town play a very low block and try to hurt teams on the counter and they are doing it very well. They are by some margin the team with the fewest passes per attack and only behind West Ham when it comes to progression speed up the field.

In an interview with Coaches Voice, coach Rob Edwards says that “It’s stupid coaching if you don’t try and use your strengths and against the opposition’s weaknesses”. It’s very clear what he considers their strengths to be - direct, counter attacking football. So far, it’s been working alright but with a bit of time Luton could very likely move closer to their xG and actually improve their position in the table.

Another reason they’re likely to improve is that players get time to come together as a team. Of the eleven starting in last weekend's draw against Liverpool, only four were in the team last season, so they do need time to gel.

Quality of the team

They’ve brought in a lot of players this season while on a very tight budget. They’ve done this by recruiting players from lower leagues on loan as well as finding players without a contract.

They’ve loaned younger players from Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City, so while they’re not the finished product yet, they all come from very solid academies and have experience from both top tier and European football.

They were able to snatch up Andros Townsend and Ross Barkley on free transfers. Players beyond their years in the absolute top of the premier league but, for a newly promoted side that hasn’t played top flight football for more than 30 years, they bring experience and quality. 

Final Thoughts

Luton have started the season with three draws and one win in eleven but have statistically been underperforming. According to the expected goals metric, the team has been playing to the level of 11th placed Crystal Palace.

It’s also a team filled with players new to each other. They need time to get to know each other, to learn Rob Edwards and Luton Town's way of football. The players that were brought in are a combination of older, experienced players, loans and players who have performed well in the lower leagues which adds up to an interesting team.

Luton could very well stay up, if they keep playing the way they are and the team starts playing more as a unit.

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