Could Someone Actually CHALLENGE Manchester City This Season?

Since Guardiola took over Manchester City in 2016 the Premier League has been a little… predictable. In seven seasons they’ve only failed to win it twice, in 16/17 (Guardiola's first season) and in 19/20. Last season, they were the best they’ve ever been. Not only did they do the three peat (winning the league three times in a row) but they also won the treble. A double triple. That’s a lot of American sports terminology, sorry about that.

One team consistently winning the league makes it a little boring. Just look at Bundesliga and Ligue 1. It’s Bayern Munich and PSG and then 17 teams competing for second place. PSG has failed to win only twice in the past eleven seasons and Bayern have won the Bundesliga for eleven in a row.

With Manchester City's record the Premier League is in danger of ending up in the same situation. And that would be boring. Well, for everyone but City fans. 

Since Manchester City and Guradiola have consistently improved their team every summer, there was no surprise that Manchester City are the clear favourites to win it this year too. That is despite the fact that they're currently in third place.

Manchester City are odds favourites to win it this year too. But they are in third and more than a fourth of the season has already been played. So does that mean they could actually get some competition this season?

Can Arsenal go all the way this year?

Arsenal have started the season well and are currently in second. But the biggest talking point is how different the team looks. Declan Rice was the big signing of the summer for the Gunners and his addition to the team has definitely changed the way they play and made them defensively more solid. 

Arteta's team was excellent during the first half of last season and then completely lost it. They led the league for longer than anyone without winning the league. They were eight points clear at one point. Yet, Manchester City managed to claw their way back. Despite still playing in all competitions. And here lies the big difference. Experience and depth.

Last year they fielded the squad with the second lowest average age in the league - 24.96 years. This year, they’ve an even lower average than last season (only Burnley and Chelsea have younger squads, on average) - 24.96 years. 26 year old Declan Rice is the player in the squad with by far the most Premier League experience.

What many of the players in the squad do have this year is experience of a fight for first place, that could prove important. For depth though, it’s fair to say that the additions of Rice, Havertz, Raya and Timber has made them better.

Is Ange’s Tottenham the real deal?

The biggest improvement this season has come from the other north London club, Tottenham, who are currently top of the table. Results wise, Ange Postecoglou has very clearly improved the team that finished eighth last season and Spurs along with Arsenal are the only teams still unbeaten in the league this year.

There is an argument, however, that Tottenham has overperformed so far this season. Looking at their stats for the season you can see that expected goals (xG) against them is way lower than their actual goals conceded. Almost half as many goals were conceded relative to what was expected, statistically. This makes them by far the biggest over performer in the top five by this metric.

Teams that do well tend to overperform this statistic but not in the way Tottenham are currently doing it and it’s likely they will start reverting to the mean.

Liverpool and Aston Villa

Now, Tottenham and Arsenal are ahead of Manchester City in the table but the strongest challenger to Manchester City’s dominance since Guardiola joined has been Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. They were struggling last year both because of injuries but also because of their inability to upgrade their midfield.

This year the entire starting midfield has been replaced with Mac Allister, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai (yes I copy pasted his name) and it’s looking a lot better but changing an entire part of the team will take some time to run smoothly.

Lastly, Unai Emery has worked wonders with Aston Villa since he took over. They’re playing fast and fun football and are keeping up well with the top so far. If we look at the table of 2023 games only, Aston villa are actually third and on equal points to Arsenal, albeit 12 points behind Manchester City.

But this year Aston Villa also has European football and it is doubtful that their squad has the depth to compete in both the league and Europa League.

Final Thoughts

Manchester City are still the favourites to win by odds, and there’s good reason for that. Out of their core players they only lost Gundogan who, while he was an instrumental part of their success last year, isn’t irreplaceable. They’ve added depth in Nunes, Kovacic, Gvardiol and Doku.

Tottenham are overperforming, still in the honeymoon phase with their new manager, Ange Postecoglou. They’re in first now but I expect them to revert to the mean and likely drop a few places.

Arsenal and Liverpool are probably the teams that have a chance at challenging Manchester City, but Liverpool has had trouble reaching the same performance as they did in 21/22 and 18/19. It looks like they may have successfully addressed the midfield issue that was a reason for their tough season last season. But time will tell how it works out.

Arsenal still has a young team and are lacking a bit of depth but these are young players with experience from fighting for first place last year. THey’re also looking stronger defensively this year, even is the goals have been relatively fewer.

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